* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 09/22/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 43 51 56 60 64 66 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 26 30 35 43 48 52 56 58 50 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 25 26 32 36 41 48 56 63 57 37 SHEAR (KTS) 16 12 10 4 11 13 8 3 8 6 5 3 4 SHEAR DIR 269 254 240 217 157 223 180 237 205 296 342 343 158 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 149 146 145 151 159 158 155 151 149 148 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 140 136 134 138 141 138 135 132 130 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 62 62 53 52 50 52 55 53 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 21 19 13 21 6 34 17 26 25 -2 10 1 200 MB DIV 52 65 49 47 55 28 20 13 6 -8 -8 17 12 LAND (KM) 134 29 -75 -84 10 190 370 377 255 153 61 -16 -151 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.2 22.3 23.2 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.1 22.7 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.3 87.2 88.1 89.0 89.9 91.5 93.0 94.1 95.3 96.3 97.2 98.0 99.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 5 5 5 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 127 94 9999 9999 32 50 60 54 54 64 66 73 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 25. 31. 36. 40. 43. 47. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 26. 31. 35. 39. 41. 45. 47. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 09/22/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 09/22/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY