* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952007 09/22/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 50 62 71 75 73 68 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 50 62 71 75 73 68 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 50 55 54 53 52 53 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 12 10 15 16 19 33 57 37 39 39 35 SHEAR DIR 223 235 270 279 266 278 244 190 164 144 160 174 193 SST (C) 24.4 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.3 22.6 21.1 18.4 12.8 10.6 9.6 8.7 POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 96 95 94 94 93 87 78 69 66 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 80 80 80 79 81 83 79 72 66 64 63 62 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -57.8 -57.9 -58.0 -57.9 -58.1 -57.8 -55.4 -53.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 47 44 45 45 50 54 63 63 61 58 60 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 10 13 17 21 15 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 60 62 54 48 27 13 107 174 248 205 228 203 192 200 MB DIV 22 11 12 13 23 43 78 83 84 62 76 57 -27 LAND (KM) 1347 1306 1265 1210 1156 1042 975 952 910 1020 1101 1244 1198 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 36.4 36.7 37.2 37.6 38.8 41.2 45.2 49.9 53.7 57.0 59.6 61.6 LONG(DEG W) 45.5 45.7 45.8 46.1 46.3 46.2 43.6 40.9 40.6 40.5 39.9 39.3 39.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 5 5 11 19 23 21 18 15 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 18. 17. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -1. 2. 5. 1. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 37. 46. 51. 49. 44. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 25. 37. 46. 50. 48. 43. 37. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 09/22/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 09/22/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY