* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/22/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 43 40 36 31 31 34 39 43 45 48 V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 43 40 36 29 32 35 39 43 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 47 46 43 36 38 39 42 45 49 58 SHEAR (KTS) 9 5 8 5 8 12 9 7 1 12 5 12 17 SHEAR DIR 218 207 213 251 242 269 308 278 279 190 171 191 225 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.4 28.0 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 126 126 129 134 141 147 152 156 160 164 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 8 9 7 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 57 52 51 52 49 45 39 34 35 36 36 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 6 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -35 -21 -15 -14 8 -13 16 -5 26 -12 13 -17 200 MB DIV 12 24 15 -17 -18 -20 -39 -47 -11 -7 -2 18 -14 LAND (KM) 302 261 221 180 139 44 -23 17 61 97 59 9 15 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.6 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.2 25.7 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 112.3 112.0 111.7 111.4 110.8 110.2 109.8 109.6 109.5 109.4 109.4 109.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -2. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -19. -16. -11. -7. -5. -2. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/22/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/22/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY