* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL942007 09/23/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 45 50 53 54 54 54 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 32 35 40 46 51 54 41 32 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 30 31 33 35 37 39 33 29 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 10 15 23 18 20 16 21 29 43 42 45 SHEAR DIR 222 210 185 182 190 211 219 251 263 273 273 271 258 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.6 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 147 153 161 164 160 158 159 159 163 162 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 140 145 150 148 140 132 133 136 139 135 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 10 8 11 7 10 6 11 7 12 700-500 MB RH 68 60 57 57 54 49 53 50 50 50 50 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 7 12 -2 -35 -4 -12 8 -4 -1 5 -10 200 MB DIV 56 32 48 34 35 6 3 0 1 -10 -10 -12 -9 LAND (KM) -51 -124 28 179 331 413 227 105 50 -54 -227 -354 -424 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 20.2 21.4 22.6 23.8 25.4 26.8 27.6 28.1 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.9 89.8 90.6 91.4 93.1 94.9 95.8 96.0 97.1 99.1 100.5 101.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 14 13 11 8 4 4 7 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 31 46 68 36 39 49 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 29. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 29. 26. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 09/23/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 42% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 09/23/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY