* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952007 09/23/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 47 54 66 70 66 65 65 61 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 47 54 66 70 66 65 65 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 42 48 54 55 52 51 52 53 SHEAR (KTS) 17 9 8 10 16 10 22 57 40 22 31 31 24 SHEAR DIR 232 260 251 246 231 241 245 193 166 169 173 176 197 SST (C) 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.0 22.1 20.2 15.7 11.4 10.0 9.2 8.0 POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 96 95 96 94 91 84 73 67 65 64 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 80 80 80 81 83 82 76 69 65 63 62 61 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.7 -57.8 -57.8 -57.9 -58.3 -57.1 -55.9 -52.9 -52.4 -51.9 -51.2 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 45 48 44 46 53 56 57 58 60 55 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 14 14 12 17 19 12 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 56 47 43 27 6 69 103 168 176 148 165 191 201 200 MB DIV 15 21 1 17 39 63 75 78 44 46 61 74 0 LAND (KM) 1296 1257 1217 1166 1115 1010 1025 1002 947 1019 1135 1266 1139 LAT (DEG N) 36.2 36.5 36.8 37.3 37.7 39.5 42.7 47.1 51.7 55.2 58.1 60.5 62.1 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 46.6 46.8 47.0 47.1 45.5 41.4 39.5 40.6 40.6 40.0 39.9 40.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 7 16 22 23 21 16 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 19. 19. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 1. 3. -3. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 37. 41. 37. 37. 37. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 24. 36. 40. 36. 35. 35. 31. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 09/23/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 09/23/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY