* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ELEVEN AL112007 09/23/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 51 59 67 77 75 75 72 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 51 59 67 77 75 75 72 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 47 53 56 56 54 54 55 55 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 11 16 14 17 30 38 23 37 34 38 30 SHEAR DIR 254 253 262 249 262 219 212 192 156 185 201 218 217 SST (C) 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.2 22.5 20.9 17.3 11.7 10.0 8.9 5.7 4.2 POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 96 95 94 93 87 77 70 67 65 62 60 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 81 81 81 81 83 79 72 67 65 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.8 -57.8 -58.0 -58.2 -58.4 -57.2 -54.7 -53.3 -52.0 -50.7 -49.6 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 46 47 50 55 63 63 65 69 68 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 11 11 10 17 12 11 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 52 54 44 15 21 57 105 195 208 208 286 257 197 200 MB DIV 23 17 37 42 52 83 86 106 88 106 -53 -101 -157 LAND (KM) 1304 1248 1193 1127 1065 1025 1070 1104 1183 1325 1230 1169 1136 LAT (DEG N) 36.2 36.8 37.3 38.1 38.9 41.3 45.4 50.7 55.7 59.8 62.8 64.7 65.8 LONG(DEG W) 46.1 46.1 46.1 45.8 45.5 42.7 39.2 38.0 38.1 37.9 37.3 36.5 36.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 8 12 20 25 26 23 18 13 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 20. 22. 22. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -4. 1. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 30. 38. 47. 46. 46. 43. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 29. 37. 47. 45. 45. 42. 34. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL112007 ELEVEN 09/23/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112007 ELEVEN 09/23/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED