* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL942007 09/23/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 39 46 51 54 58 61 62 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 30 37 44 51 56 60 42 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 25 26 28 30 33 36 40 33 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 10 18 12 18 11 13 13 16 24 21 34 SHEAR DIR 223 209 185 197 236 207 245 243 263 279 291 254 253 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 148 154 163 164 159 157 155 156 156 157 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 137 142 149 147 137 132 130 133 133 131 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 7 9 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 56 50 49 49 52 51 52 53 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 13 3 -14 4 -15 12 12 -5 -8 4 8 200 MB DIV 31 52 51 24 18 7 -5 23 -9 -18 -21 -2 8 LAND (KM) -128 -26 101 218 338 384 257 183 135 47 -81 -180 -222 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.8 25.3 26.5 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.6 89.4 90.1 90.9 91.6 93.4 94.7 95.5 96.0 96.9 98.2 99.2 99.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 6 3 3 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 37 54 69 33 34 44 53 57 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 38. 41. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 38. 41. 42. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 09/23/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 09/23/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED