* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL962007 09/23/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 58 68 76 81 84 85 83
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 58 68 76 81 84 85 83
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 57 66 71 74 73
SHEAR (KTS) 3 8 6 7 8 9 6 6 11 9 13 17 23
SHEAR DIR 313 272 245 231 242 254 252 217 209 219 221 222 236
SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 142 142 142 139 141 140 141 141 136 132 132
ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 149 149 149 145 146 144 144 143 136 129 127
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -54.5 -53.7 -54.5 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9
700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 68 73 68 69 70 67 63 64 61 62
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 8
850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 40 41 42 31 27 37 39 3 -1 -3 -18
200 MB DIV 45 43 55 83 77 86 49 66 44 50 48 44 45
LAND (KM) 1218 1298 1386 1492 1542 1501 1468 1472 1310 1138 1038 1037 1077
LAT (DEG N) 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.9 9.7 10.3 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.7 14.8
LONG(DEG W) 26.1 27.2 28.3 29.6 30.8 33.4 36.0 38.8 41.5 44.3 46.8 49.0 50.6
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 12 11 9
HEAT CONTENT 37 38 49 48 43 22 20 16 18 24 28 30 45
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 33. 43. 51. 56. 59. 60. 58.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 33. 43. 51. 56. 59. 60. 58.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 09/23/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 09/23/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED