* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972007 09/23/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 46 54 58 62 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 46 54 58 62 65 68 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 34 38 42 46 49 51 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 13 17 14 14 11 6 18 13 21 19 19 SHEAR DIR 221 244 255 254 279 309 307 301 287 295 287 281 265 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 147 149 152 154 157 158 160 161 163 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 147 146 147 148 151 151 151 152 155 155 157 159 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 12 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 60 58 59 61 60 55 57 57 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -9 -1 3 -11 -9 -15 -17 -28 -9 3 8 6 200 MB DIV 31 31 49 34 33 30 8 11 -8 9 -5 -7 5 LAND (KM) 627 639 586 510 420 356 460 346 172 107 109 16 8 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.7 14.9 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 54.4 55.5 56.6 57.6 59.6 61.6 63.4 65.2 67.2 69.3 71.6 74.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 48 50 59 60 68 82 83 99 103 97 108 104 114 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 19. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 21. 29. 33. 37. 40. 43. 45. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/23/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/23/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED