* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/23/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS 16 23 29 32 37 V (KT) LAND 30 25 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 24 20 18 16 19 18 17 18 19 21 24 24 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 7 5 11 11 10 9 12 11 17 23 29 SHEAR DIR 231 261 276 277 261 284 267 313 213 220 231 249 248 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.9 28.1 28.4 29.1 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 130 133 139 141 144 152 157 160 164 165 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 7 9 8 10 8 9 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 54 52 48 48 44 37 35 34 37 37 39 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -19 -7 9 -9 24 -2 21 -16 15 -21 5 200 MB DIV 22 -21 -25 -17 -25 -48 -34 -14 1 -1 -7 9 -11 LAND (KM) 171 133 95 47 0 12 26 56 99 64 19 15 -20 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.3 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.2 110.9 110.6 110.2 109.6 109.6 109.4 109.3 109.3 109.4 109.4 109.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 2 1 2 3 3 3 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -18. -18. -16. -15. -14. -11. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -18. -17. -12. -8. -4. 0. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -3. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 1. 3. 2. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -11. -13. -17. -18. -19. -14. -7. -1. 2. 7. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/23/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/23/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY