* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JERRY AL112007 09/23/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 44 47 54 62 71 69 65 66 63 59 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 44 47 54 62 71 69 65 66 63 59 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 43 45 51 54 53 50 49 49 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 16 15 13 27 42 35 19 9 24 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 240 237 256 230 210 210 207 204 75 14 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.4 22.8 21.5 19.5 17.8 17.0 17.3 16.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 97 97 96 94 89 81 77 75 76 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 82 84 85 85 80 74 71 70 71 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.6 -58.0 -58.1 -58.4 -57.1 -57.4 -57.3 -58.1 -59.4 -60.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 47 52 53 59 63 66 61 59 48 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 15 14 11 13 18 13 10 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 47 17 23 55 105 103 9 -69 -109 -144 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 41 48 46 68 87 84 45 59 27 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1317 1258 1199 1105 1029 983 1177 1532 1098 635 140 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 36.6 37.2 38.6 40.0 44.4 47.4 49.5 51.0 51.5 52.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.3 46.3 46.2 45.3 44.3 40.9 37.1 32.0 26.1 19.5 12.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 11 16 21 23 20 20 21 22 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 16. 16. 17. 18. 17. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 19. 23. 27. 32. 33. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -3. 0. -3. -6. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 29. 37. 34. 31. 32. 30. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 9. 12. 19. 27. 36. 34. 30. 31. 29. 24. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL112007 JERRY 09/23/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112007 JERRY 09/23/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY