* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 09/23/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 38 45 50 56 62 66 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 34 40 47 53 59 64 50 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 21 21 22 24 27 30 35 42 38 30 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 19 16 12 17 10 10 6 5 3 11 11 SHEAR DIR 212 193 196 231 220 224 244 255 307 242 247 245 248 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 151 156 161 162 157 155 154 151 150 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 138 141 143 141 135 132 132 131 132 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 11 7 10 6 11 7 13 8 700-500 MB RH 58 60 58 52 51 51 52 55 54 53 56 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 3 -10 -6 12 -1 25 8 14 7 8 0 200 MB DIV 58 51 45 20 17 1 1 0 -13 -5 -7 13 -4 LAND (KM) -3 91 188 273 363 414 321 247 205 152 71 -45 -196 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 23.3 22.7 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 89.4 90.2 90.9 91.6 92.3 93.3 94.2 95.0 95.6 96.3 97.1 98.3 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 4 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 36 50 68 66 41 25 27 37 50 65 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 25. 30. 37. 43. 47. 50. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 25. 30. 36. 42. 46. 46. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 09/23/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 09/23/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY