* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 09/23/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 38 47 59 68 75 80 83 84 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 38 47 59 68 75 80 83 84 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 50 61 71 78 81 78 SHEAR (KTS) 12 5 6 8 8 7 4 6 5 11 9 18 19 SHEAR DIR 309 287 277 276 263 256 254 234 213 202 238 234 275 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 143 142 141 141 142 140 142 142 136 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 151 149 146 145 146 143 145 144 135 127 125 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 71 69 68 68 69 64 64 61 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 51 51 47 49 46 37 34 34 21 0 -20 -21 -17 200 MB DIV 38 52 65 66 55 57 29 23 11 61 58 53 24 LAND (KM) 1387 1475 1494 1493 1466 1440 1425 1396 1193 1052 985 1048 1122 LAT (DEG N) 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.1 9.1 9.7 10.2 10.7 11.4 12.4 13.9 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.1 30.2 31.5 32.7 35.1 37.6 40.1 42.7 45.3 47.6 49.2 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 56 53 45 37 25 23 17 28 28 29 32 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 21. 33. 43. 51. 57. 61. 62. 61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 13. 22. 34. 43. 50. 55. 58. 59. 58. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 09/23/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 5.0 Prob of RI= 48% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 09/23/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY