* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972007 09/23/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 41 47 55 59 63 66 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 41 47 55 59 63 66 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 38 40 42 43 43 43 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 12 12 12 13 15 20 20 21 25 26 24 SHEAR DIR 241 230 243 261 278 272 300 258 282 250 264 252 244 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 151 152 154 157 159 161 163 163 163 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 150 152 153 154 156 155 156 158 158 156 155 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 54 58 58 58 59 61 59 57 57 56 60 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 7 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 2 3 -2 -7 0 -19 -14 -24 -17 0 -14 -19 200 MB DIV 24 62 60 61 43 32 22 8 7 2 7 -8 0 LAND (KM) 577 528 424 329 269 353 371 188 143 97 44 87 8 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.9 15.2 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.2 57.3 58.5 59.6 61.8 64.0 66.0 68.2 70.5 72.8 75.3 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 54 59 64 72 78 78 100 101 105 114 105 113 108 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 28. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 30. 34. 38. 41. 44. 44. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/23/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/23/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY