* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/23/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 21 27 28 30 36 V (KT) LAND 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 4 10 12 4 12 8 17 24 38 35 N/A SHEAR DIR 253 252 262 258 289 267 277 267 245 228 259 252 N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.9 28.9 29.8 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 135 141 151 160 166 167 167 165 163 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 6 11 7 11 6 10 4 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 43 40 38 37 43 43 41 41 41 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -20 -8 7 -2 8 3 6 8 0 -6 -14 N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -26 -25 -29 -45 -38 -21 3 6 0 -16 7 N/A LAND (KM) 142 88 34 -21 6 94 47 -39 -101 -125 -216 -260 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.6 28.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.3 110.9 110.4 110.0 109.5 109.0 108.6 108.3 108.2 108.7 108.5 108.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 3 2 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -3. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -19. -17. -16. -15. -12. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. -16. -10. -3. 2. 1. 3. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -15. -10. -4. 2. 3. 5. 11. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/23/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/23/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED