* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JERRY AL112007 09/23/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 48 57 64 70 69 66 65 62 57 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 48 57 64 70 69 66 65 62 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 45 50 51 50 47 47 49 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 17 17 14 19 37 48 27 16 8 29 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 244 245 233 218 198 204 195 204 172 337 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.9 23.5 22.9 22.4 20.3 17.9 16.4 15.9 16.8 15.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 97 96 94 93 85 77 74 73 75 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 83 84 84 85 78 71 69 68 70 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.7 -58.0 -58.1 -57.7 -56.4 -57.0 -56.9 -58.1 -59.4 -59.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 52 55 56 67 67 73 66 50 50 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 12 13 15 17 15 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 34 37 68 92 107 93 -4 -67 -115 -107 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 52 64 81 86 85 104 37 56 7 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1266 1203 1145 1068 1024 1092 1372 1277 863 446 10 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.5 37.4 38.2 39.8 41.4 46.4 49.6 51.6 53.0 53.1 53.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.3 45.8 45.2 43.9 42.6 38.5 34.2 28.9 23.0 16.7 9.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 10 14 19 24 25 20 19 19 20 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 828 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 17. 17. 18. 19. 18. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 22. 27. 32. 33. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 30. 35. 34. 32. 31. 28. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 29. 35. 34. 31. 30. 27. 22. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL112007 JERRY 09/23/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112007 JERRY 09/23/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY