* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 09/23/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 41 51 63 74 80 84 86 86 85 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 41 51 63 74 80 84 86 86 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 39 46 56 67 77 82 81 76 SHEAR (KTS) 1 1 4 5 8 5 4 6 3 13 12 21 23 SHEAR DIR 274 221 257 244 254 321 317 299 221 248 261 262 260 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 141 142 140 142 142 137 133 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 149 147 146 146 144 146 145 138 131 129 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -53.6 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 71 69 72 71 72 67 71 71 62 66 63 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 11 11 11 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 55 50 52 52 44 40 39 42 18 7 -14 -30 -30 200 MB DIV 61 69 73 46 61 49 44 28 19 49 39 45 22 LAND (KM) 1492 1501 1490 1458 1440 1420 1415 1240 1084 995 1024 1112 1151 LAT (DEG N) 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.3 12.3 13.8 15.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.7 31.9 33.2 34.4 36.9 39.4 42.0 44.7 47.3 49.5 51.1 52.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 56 49 44 33 29 26 19 22 27 29 34 48 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 36. 48. 56. 62. 64. 63. 63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 16. 26. 38. 49. 55. 59. 61. 61. 60. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 09/23/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 5.4 Prob of RI= 57% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 5.4 Prob of RI= 59% is 4.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 09/23/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY