* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972007 09/23/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 45 53 60 65 69 73 74 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 45 53 60 65 69 73 74 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 43 47 50 51 51 50 SHEAR (KTS) 5 8 8 9 6 12 11 20 15 23 24 28 27 SHEAR DIR 233 220 252 273 287 312 284 286 281 266 247 237 234 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 153 153 153 158 159 161 161 158 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 153 155 156 155 154 157 157 160 160 156 153 152 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 12 10 12 11 12 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 60 60 62 57 56 53 55 57 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 3 -3 -10 -3 -7 -11 -9 -19 -8 0 -14 -23 200 MB DIV 56 55 46 33 37 33 14 4 21 19 3 16 15 LAND (KM) 438 378 259 167 167 311 356 290 197 202 115 108 318 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.9 12.3 13.5 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.6 58.7 59.9 61.1 63.5 65.7 68.0 70.4 73.1 75.9 78.7 81.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 13 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 65 67 71 77 69 76 84 101 99 109 123 98 114 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 26. 33. 38. 42. 44. 46. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 28. 35. 40. 44. 48. 50. 50. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/23/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/23/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY