* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/23/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 24 26 31 35 40 40 39 43 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 24 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 21 21 21 23 26 26 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 1 1 9 11 8 5 7 6 21 29 36 41 N/A SHEAR DIR 310 164 227 271 292 261 279 207 224 240 264 264 N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.7 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 134 135 139 149 161 164 165 166 164 163 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 8 11 8 10 5 7 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 42 38 37 38 41 42 38 38 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -7 7 -13 -19 14 1 21 -26 0 -22 -14 N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -15 -25 -40 -45 -40 -25 5 -5 -16 0 -18 N/A LAND (KM) 135 72 24 22 23 97 7 -81 -178 -204 -318 -368 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.9 24.7 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.5 28.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 110.5 109.9 109.6 109.2 108.7 108.0 107.5 107.0 107.4 107.0 106.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 4. -3. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. 0. 7. 12. 14. 13. 12. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -3. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 2. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 6. 10. 15. 15. 14. 18. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/23/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/23/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY