* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JERRY AL112007 09/24/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 46 58 64 70 69 68 69 66 62 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 46 58 64 70 69 68 69 66 62 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 42 46 47 46 45 47 51 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 16 17 27 35 37 8 5 5 38 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 243 239 220 206 187 171 182 143 188 331 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.4 21.8 18.2 14.6 14.6 15.1 16.2 16.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 97 95 93 92 80 71 70 70 73 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 85 85 85 84 74 68 66 66 68 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -57.9 -58.0 -57.2 -56.1 -56.4 -56.4 -57.2 -58.2 -59.4 -57.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 56 57 59 63 71 69 70 61 52 53 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 12 12 17 17 21 17 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 34 67 111 127 138 85 -10 -51 -65 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 52 86 104 87 94 62 56 30 21 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1205 1131 1074 1017 1019 1198 1474 1124 803 451 78 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.1 38.4 39.6 41.7 43.7 49.6 53.2 54.9 55.5 54.1 53.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.3 45.2 44.1 42.5 40.8 36.6 32.3 27.3 22.2 16.9 10.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 15 19 24 28 27 20 15 15 18 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 784 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 18. 18. 19. 20. 21. 20. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 18. 22. 27. 32. 33. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 24. 30. 36. 34. 34. 34. 33. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 23. 29. 35. 34. 33. 34. 31. 27. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL112007 JERRY 09/24/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112007 JERRY 09/24/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY