* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL962007 09/24/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 52 58 62 62 63 62 63
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 52 58 62 62 63 62 63
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 45 47 46 45 42
SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 6 6 14 15 10 18 15 26 27 30 27
SHEAR DIR 12 334 304 310 297 325 354 319 295 278 259 270 253
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.0
POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 139 141 139 140 140 134 131 131 134 136
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 147 144 145 143 143 142 134 129 126 126 125
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8
700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 72 69 69 69 66 60 58 62 60 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 52 50 50 43 44 43 44 44 14 -6 -20 -10 -10
200 MB DIV 57 53 32 44 49 32 33 34 57 47 40 39 39
LAND (KM) 1545 1550 1516 1497 1494 1483 1388 1221 1162 1180 1294 1332 1391
LAT (DEG N) 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.3 11.0 11.9 13.2 14.8 16.7 18.5 20.1
LONG(DEG W) 30.2 31.5 32.8 34.1 35.3 38.0 40.7 43.5 46.0 48.3 50.1 51.5 52.3
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 47 38 26 22 19 15 14 21 26 25 42 45 38
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. -11.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 33. 38. 39. 40. 40. 40.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 27. 33. 37. 37. 38. 37. 38.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 09/24/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 5.0 Prob of RI= 48% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 09/24/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY