* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972007 09/24/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 56 61 65 68 70 73 72
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 56 61 65 68 51 54 44
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 39 43 47 51 55 57 40 47 41
SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 13 8 13 12 13 19 16 20 21 18 23
SHEAR DIR 227 238 262 262 271 315 290 306 280 279 255 259 243
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 152 154 155 158 158 160 160 163 167 164
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 151 151 153 153 153 152 153 153 154 154 148
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 10 10 12 11 11 11 12 11 12
700-500 MB RH 58 61 60 57 59 56 56 54 54 58 53 55 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 8 -1 -6 -1 -1 -18 -21 -32 -17 -15 -23 -37 -44
200 MB DIV 72 64 36 45 43 19 -3 6 5 -3 -4 6 -19
LAND (KM) 397 323 272 273 322 440 226 100 55 10 3 54 -44
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.7 15.0 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.2
LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.4 59.3 60.3 61.2 63.2 64.9 66.8 68.7 70.7 72.6 74.2 75.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 65 70 71 74 72 94 106 96 97 108 109 104 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40. 43. 42.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/24/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/24/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY