* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JERRY AL112007 09/24/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 43 50 63 67 69 65 64 65 62 57 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 43 50 63 67 69 65 64 65 62 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 44 43 42 42 45 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 18 28 35 33 23 13 7 33 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 241 221 218 193 185 212 239 311 348 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 22.9 22.5 21.8 20.6 18.4 16.8 16.2 17.0 16.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 94 94 92 86 78 75 73 75 74 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 84 85 84 79 72 70 69 70 69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -57.9 -57.0 -56.0 -56.1 -55.6 -56.8 -58.5 -60.1 -58.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 59 64 66 69 75 61 54 50 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 13 14 19 26 27 25 19 17 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 85 111 144 147 82 -4 -85 -93 -57 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 73 104 83 84 115 50 39 21 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1123 1048 1006 1020 1094 1370 1297 878 458 68 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.1 39.7 41.2 43.5 45.8 48.9 51.0 52.4 52.6 53.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.9 44.5 43.1 40.9 38.7 34.3 29.0 23.2 17.0 10.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 19 23 28 25 20 20 19 19 21 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 885 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 18. 18. 18. 19. 20. 18. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 7. 5. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 15. 28. 33. 34. 30. 29. 31. 28. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 15. 28. 32. 34. 30. 29. 30. 27. 22. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL112007 JERRY 09/24/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112007 JERRY 09/24/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED