* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL962007 09/24/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 46 50 51 50 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 46 50 51 50 49 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 34 32 29 26 23 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 17 19 18 12 23 21 35 28 36 30 40 SHEAR DIR 278 267 268 283 296 290 285 269 256 258 261 262 260 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 139 141 137 134 134 131 130 130 133 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 142 141 143 138 135 134 129 125 122 122 123 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 71 68 64 64 54 56 57 60 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 42 42 45 52 43 15 0 -18 -16 -4 2 200 MB DIV 62 28 39 43 38 62 42 27 39 21 24 28 19 LAND (KM) 1598 1597 1594 1590 1598 1635 1481 1358 1303 1345 1420 1399 1398 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 13.6 14.8 16.4 17.8 19.1 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.2 33.3 34.5 35.6 38.1 40.8 43.6 46.0 48.2 49.8 51.2 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 23 15 16 14 13 15 18 21 28 38 38 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -16. -21. -23. -27. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 25. 26. 25. 24. 23. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 25. 26. 25. 24. 23. 21. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 09/24/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 09/24/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED