* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972007 09/24/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 58 62 67 71 76 77
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 58 62 67 71 76 77
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 35 40 44 47 50 53 56
SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 10 10 11 10 14 11 20 19 18 13 19
SHEAR DIR 211 233 232 258 288 296 279 260 242 246 253 267 284
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 155 154 158 161 161 161 163 162 163 161
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 153 154 157 155 156 157 157 156 158 154 153 149
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 12 11 12 11 12 12 12 12
700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 61 62 56 55 55 57 57 58 58 58
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 0 -1 -10 -15 -22 -13 -2 -4 -17 -31 -28
200 MB DIV 62 41 41 40 29 31 19 8 15 6 13 11 -2
LAND (KM) 308 238 224 295 355 325 225 200 99 70 6 66 205
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.4 13.9 15.1 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.1
LONG(DEG W) 58.5 59.6 60.7 62.0 63.2 65.5 67.6 69.8 72.1 74.5 76.6 78.4 80.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 70 71 70 75 86 91 105 109 102 118 105 113 110
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 35. 38. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 29. 33. 37. 41. 46. 48.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 24. 33. 37. 42. 46. 51. 52.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/24/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/24/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED