* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP932007 09/24/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 31 38 43 48 52 51 52 53 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 31 38 43 48 52 51 52 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 23 24 25 25 26 26 26 27 SHEAR (KTS) 2 2 5 5 6 12 14 19 20 21 23 23 25 SHEAR DIR 41 15 309 295 303 298 268 276 266 262 246 250 244 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 139 139 137 136 135 134 135 136 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -53.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 52 55 56 57 59 59 60 59 57 58 59 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 6 8 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -3 -2 0 1 6 2 3 31 22 26 26 13 200 MB DIV -3 -3 -13 -9 12 9 41 22 15 -5 -3 -22 -4 LAND (KM) 626 672 735 789 850 917 930 914 886 878 900 937 993 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 156.9 158.0 159.1 160.1 161.1 162.5 163.4 163.9 164.1 164.3 164.8 165.5 166.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 8 6 4 2 2 2 3 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 5. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 19. 26. 31. 30. 30. 30. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 31. 32. 33. 34. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP932007 INVEST 09/24/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932007 INVEST 09/24/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY