* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 09/24/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 45 54 61 69 73 75 73 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 31 28 27 27 27 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 25 26 27 27 27 33 36 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 11 8 9 9 7 7 2 4 15 19 18 SHEAR DIR 231 240 264 280 304 344 13 15 72 327 287 276 293 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 157 156 155 155 157 160 162 162 155 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 141 140 139 138 138 142 147 151 151 144 137 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 7 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 9 8 700-500 MB RH 56 58 57 57 58 60 55 57 55 61 60 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 13 15 23 10 -15 -3 -11 0 -24 -5 -22 200 MB DIV 18 10 1 0 8 2 3 11 -6 20 26 0 23 LAND (KM) 360 328 269 200 131 23 -72 -190 -300 -211 -43 158 90 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.7 21.3 20.9 20.5 20.4 20.7 21.4 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.1 94.7 95.4 96.0 97.0 98.1 99.3 100.9 102.8 104.9 107.1 109.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 7 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 56 66 70 83 97 97 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 24. 32. 38. 46. 50. 52. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 25. 34. 41. 49. 53. 55. 53. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 09/24/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 09/24/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY