* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 09/24/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 50 60 69 74 78 84 85 88 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 50 60 69 74 78 84 85 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 34 40 48 55 61 68 73 75 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 7 9 3 5 6 9 4 8 8 16 10 SHEAR DIR 239 263 278 295 341 335 252 248 199 234 211 214 174 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 136 135 134 136 139 138 136 136 136 137 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 139 137 135 138 140 138 133 130 128 126 128 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -54.4 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -54.7 -54.3 -54.9 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 71 68 69 59 56 59 62 60 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 43 43 40 49 35 15 -11 -21 -20 -11 0 200 MB DIV 46 38 41 37 39 38 51 63 52 54 44 39 26 LAND (KM) 1486 1479 1484 1497 1496 1310 1184 1120 1149 1222 1194 1192 1181 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.4 12.3 13.4 14.9 16.3 17.7 18.8 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.7 36.9 38.2 39.4 41.9 44.5 46.9 49.2 51.0 52.5 53.6 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 15 11 12 16 21 32 40 53 51 59 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 22. 33. 43. 51. 56. 62. 63. 66. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 35. 44. 49. 53. 59. 60. 63. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 09/24/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 5.1 Prob of RI= 48% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 5.1 Prob of RI= 51% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 09/24/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY