* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972007 09/24/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 56 59 64 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 49 57 62 66 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 42 43 45 47 SHEAR (KTS) 10 15 13 14 12 16 15 22 19 25 17 20 20 SHEAR DIR 255 256 270 294 301 279 267 261 266 255 285 285 299 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 154 152 151 152 157 160 164 165 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 151 151 150 147 146 147 150 150 151 149 147 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 59 58 62 56 57 58 54 55 57 53 56 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 -11 -18 -16 -24 -22 -16 -15 -20 -24 -26 -14 200 MB DIV 32 28 20 19 25 12 23 24 15 11 2 13 10 LAND (KM) 336 395 455 371 256 122 108 16 -21 97 22 104 167 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.6 19.8 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.7 62.7 63.7 64.7 66.8 69.1 71.6 74.0 76.0 77.6 78.7 79.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 75 77 86 93 99 84 93 86 9999 96 104 111 110 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 35. 38. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 28. 31. 34. 39. 43. 45. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/24/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/24/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY