* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP932007 09/24/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 29 33 41 48 53 54 54 54 56 56 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 29 33 41 48 53 54 54 54 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 7 9 16 11 13 18 24 28 24 26 22 SHEAR DIR 242 255 284 294 303 272 253 244 252 253 243 247 251 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 139 139 138 138 137 137 138 138 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 65 64 64 63 63 62 63 62 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 3 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 0 9 8 20 7 32 23 35 35 38 33 200 MB DIV -18 -12 14 23 22 62 22 41 3 6 8 30 6 LAND (KM) 759 799 847 874 908 924 912 895 894 915 949 1005 1065 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 158.8 159.8 160.8 161.6 162.3 163.5 164.4 165.0 165.6 166.2 166.9 167.8 168.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 6. 10. 17. 24. 30. 32. 32. 32. 34. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 9. 13. 21. 28. 33. 34. 34. 34. 36. 36. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP932007 INVEST 09/24/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932007 INVEST 09/24/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY