* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TWELVE AL122007 09/25/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 58 68 75 77 79 81 82 82 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 58 68 75 77 79 81 82 82 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 48 57 64 70 72 73 72 72 SHEAR (KTS) 11 6 9 1 4 10 8 12 14 15 19 15 21 SHEAR DIR 246 267 276 304 231 274 234 247 216 251 223 222 211 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 134 135 138 138 137 136 135 137 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 137 135 137 140 138 135 132 128 127 128 128 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 69 70 65 65 64 61 60 61 59 58 63 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 12 13 13 12 13 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 51 50 50 47 43 39 27 5 -22 -28 -22 -1 9 200 MB DIV 46 49 36 39 39 6 41 54 53 30 44 14 30 LAND (KM) 1500 1499 1513 1500 1407 1236 1153 1135 1206 1198 1207 1201 1170 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.3 12.0 13.1 14.4 16.0 17.4 18.8 20.0 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.7 37.0 38.2 39.5 40.7 43.4 46.0 48.4 50.5 52.2 53.4 54.4 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 10 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 11 11 12 19 29 31 51 50 58 52 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 36. 44. 49. 52. 54. 55. 54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 28. 38. 45. 47. 49. 51. 52. 52. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 TWELVE 09/25/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 5.0 Prob of RI= 45% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 5.0 Prob of RI= 50% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 TWELVE 09/25/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY