* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 09/25/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 27 30 38 46 57 64 70 74 75 75 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 27 30 38 32 28 27 27 27 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 26 27 27 27 27 32 34 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 6 6 6 7 2 2 8 12 14 21 9 SHEAR DIR 237 272 270 322 315 4 89 74 194 240 286 294 305 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 157 157 155 155 157 159 163 167 162 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 140 139 139 137 138 141 144 149 154 148 144 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 6 8 11 8 13 10 14 10 13 8 10 700-500 MB RH 57 55 56 55 57 54 51 53 54 57 58 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 5 7 5 6 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 23 30 25 1 -9 -5 -13 -9 -15 -25 -16 200 MB DIV 7 1 6 14 -7 -23 11 10 5 17 11 -16 18 LAND (KM) 354 295 238 181 128 45 -79 -217 -372 -213 -54 90 84 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.0 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.9 22.5 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 93.9 94.5 95.1 95.7 96.3 97.4 98.6 99.9 101.4 103.2 105.0 106.9 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 64 68 72 84 94 85 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 18. 24. 29. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 24. 34. 41. 47. 51. 52. 54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 7. 10. 18. 26. 37. 44. 50. 54. 55. 55. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 09/25/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 09/25/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY