* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972007 09/25/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 41 44 45 48 53 57 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 41 34 30 34 36 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 26 26 29 27 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 20 19 21 18 23 24 19 20 14 20 20 SHEAR DIR 262 280 289 290 286 301 278 287 258 274 262 293 271 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 153 153 152 152 155 159 161 164 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 146 145 146 147 144 144 145 147 146 146 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -54.6 -55.1 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 13 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 59 56 54 53 56 52 54 50 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -31 -40 -29 -35 -44 -34 -36 -32 -32 -19 -4 11 200 MB DIV 5 -1 -5 11 -10 2 5 10 -12 6 0 11 -4 LAND (KM) 472 528 453 347 241 34 61 -45 -34 31 0 0 0 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 60.3 61.2 62.1 63.0 63.8 65.8 67.9 70.1 72.1 73.9 75.3 76.5 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 8 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 82 79 87 90 90 85 72 9999 9999 92 84 93 88 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 26. 29. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 23. 28. 32. 35. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/25/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/25/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY