* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP932007 09/25/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 29 35 39 42 43 46 48 51 54 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 29 35 39 42 43 46 48 51 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 24 24 25 26 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 11 13 13 21 14 20 26 21 22 18 16 SHEAR DIR 255 281 293 297 273 265 246 245 258 260 258 253 246 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 139 139 139 138 137 137 139 140 140 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 63 63 64 63 62 62 63 64 61 58 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 4 3 4 7 20 20 22 28 24 18 16 200 MB DIV -9 6 14 17 47 17 33 46 15 -6 -4 -3 26 LAND (KM) 797 829 870 900 936 929 921 921 938 994 1057 1145 1250 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 159.7 160.6 161.5 162.2 162.9 164.0 164.7 165.4 166.2 167.1 168.1 169.3 170.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 27. 29. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 22. 23. 26. 28. 31. 34. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP932007 INVEST 09/25/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932007 INVEST 09/25/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY