* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TWELVE AL122007 09/25/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 47 55 63 67 69 68 66 63 61 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 47 55 63 67 69 68 66 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 40 45 49 52 55 55 54 52 48 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 7 10 15 14 18 11 25 21 34 26 38 SHEAR DIR 291 303 307 305 303 308 288 272 251 238 231 221 238 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 137 140 143 140 138 137 137 138 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 140 142 144 145 140 134 132 129 127 128 126 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 65 62 61 58 58 63 63 60 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 15 18 16 16 16 16 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 51 53 45 42 35 22 21 -5 -22 -31 -5 16 24 200 MB DIV 57 36 29 21 6 23 36 51 61 27 27 17 -1 LAND (KM) 1499 1508 1446 1326 1220 1053 976 1039 1188 1214 1269 1227 1221 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.1 13.0 14.4 16.2 18.1 19.8 21.3 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.6 40.0 41.6 43.1 46.2 48.8 50.5 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.4 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 10 11 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 15 21 31 39 52 51 53 51 54 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 23. 32. 37. 40. 41. 39. 35. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 17. 25. 33. 37. 39. 38. 36. 33. 31. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 TWELVE 09/25/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 TWELVE 09/25/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED