* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942007 09/25/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 49 59 68 73 76 76 75
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 35 30 28 27 27 27 30 29
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 26 27 27 27 27 33 36
SHEAR (KTS) 10 6 3 5 9 8 6 6 6 11 14 15 13
SHEAR DIR 253 246 293 316 357 34 84 107 171 264 286 312 292
SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 154 154 152 155 158 160 162 162 156 153
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 138 136 136 135 139 144 148 151 151 143 137
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 12 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 8
700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 58 60 57 58 57 62 59 61 63 65
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 27 29 17 -9 -5 -17 7 -30 -16 -35 -37
200 MB DIV 6 7 18 4 -6 -7 13 16 5 1 3 21 22
LAND (KM) 302 239 175 129 83 -2 -99 -249 -244 -171 -6 162 90
LAT (DEG N) 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.1 20.8 20.4 20.1 20.3 20.9 21.8 22.8
LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.9 95.5 96.0 96.4 97.3 98.2 99.6 101.3 103.4 105.4 107.2 108.7
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 4 6 8 9 10 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 67 72 82 90 89 88 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 36. 44. 49. 52. 53. 54.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 29. 39. 48. 53. 56. 56. 55.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 09/25/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 09/25/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED