* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972007 09/25/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 36 40 43 46 52 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 28 33 29 33 37 43 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 23 29 26 29 29 31 35 40 SHEAR (KTS) 17 19 18 26 26 21 28 21 19 15 12 10 19 SHEAR DIR 285 287 286 283 299 289 277 287 286 325 316 326 267 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 153 152 150 153 158 159 159 161 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 144 144 145 143 142 144 146 144 141 142 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 55 53 56 51 56 52 54 54 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -44 -34 -36 -45 -39 -51 -30 -51 -24 -3 3 18 200 MB DIV -8 2 8 -5 1 11 14 6 17 2 17 15 15 LAND (KM) 532 423 315 210 104 -11 0 -43 22 48 47 55 76 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.2 63.0 63.9 64.8 66.8 68.8 70.9 72.8 74.3 75.2 76.0 76.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 6 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 79 88 91 85 84 76 76 9999 89 88 86 91 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 18. 24. 29. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 15. 18. 21. 27. 32. 34. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/25/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/25/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED