* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP932007 09/25/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 29 35 40 44 46 50 53 57 60 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 29 35 40 44 46 50 53 57 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 28 29 32 35 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 14 12 13 18 14 19 19 17 17 11 12 SHEAR DIR 277 302 309 290 274 248 254 262 260 259 242 248 239 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 140 139 139 138 138 140 141 141 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -53.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 60 60 63 65 62 64 61 62 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -6 -8 -12 4 12 13 6 20 12 15 12 17 200 MB DIV 5 11 0 16 14 15 37 14 22 -2 23 14 1 LAND (KM) 904 936 978 996 988 988 987 986 1023 1068 1124 1202 1307 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 161.0 161.9 162.8 163.4 164.0 164.9 165.6 166.3 167.1 168.0 169.0 170.1 171.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 34. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 30. 33. 37. 40. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP932007 INVEST 09/25/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932007 INVEST 09/25/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY