* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/25/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 51 60 65 72 72 70 67 65 61 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 51 60 65 72 72 70 67 65 61 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 46 52 57 61 62 61 58 54 49 SHEAR (KTS) 9 5 7 13 16 9 13 20 21 27 28 33 32 SHEAR DIR 279 267 264 269 278 250 255 230 230 210 221 216 232 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 136 138 141 140 137 136 134 135 136 140 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 139 141 143 140 135 131 126 125 125 127 128 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.5 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 64 65 63 59 60 58 59 58 59 57 60 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 15 15 18 17 16 17 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 38 31 24 24 8 -23 -36 -42 -10 11 21 200 MB DIV 35 17 9 -6 -10 39 35 54 45 41 14 22 1 LAND (KM) 1516 1494 1377 1269 1174 1064 1075 1161 1268 1285 1331 1308 1296 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.3 13.7 15.3 16.8 18.3 19.8 21.3 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.5 40.9 42.4 43.8 46.3 48.2 49.8 51.0 51.9 52.8 53.6 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 12 18 24 31 31 46 53 48 43 47 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 23. 29. 37. 38. 38. 35. 33. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 16. 25. 30. 37. 37. 35. 32. 30. 26. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/25/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/25/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY