* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 09/25/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 46 55 61 65 68 70 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 3 8 5 6 2 9 12 14 14 20 26 SHEAR DIR 244 227 298 18 30 126 155 181 216 227 243 243 269 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 156 156 154 155 157 161 163 167 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 138 135 136 135 137 139 144 146 149 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 9 7 13 10 15 10 14 8 11 6 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 58 54 54 55 55 60 55 56 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 20 27 19 3 -14 -13 -10 -5 -29 -21 -36 -46 200 MB DIV 13 13 -8 -25 -27 -6 7 7 10 -2 3 37 3 LAND (KM) 285 243 205 173 143 55 -41 -174 -318 -327 -227 -230 -275 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.9 23.7 24.8 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.1 95.6 96.0 96.4 97.3 98.3 99.6 101.0 102.5 103.9 104.9 105.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 69 71 78 85 85 73 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 29. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 24. 33. 39. 43. 46. 48. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 26. 35. 41. 45. 48. 50. 48. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 09/25/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 09/25/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY