* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972007 09/25/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 41 45 51 56 57
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 26 31 29 34 36 40 46 51 53
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 22 27 24 30 29 29 31 35 40
SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 30 30 27 28 28 22 21 14 15 14 20
SHEAR DIR 288 285 286 303 300 283 287 292 295 296 301 246 251
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 154 154 152 152 158 159 160 161 163 164
ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 144 146 146 144 144 148 146 143 143 142 142
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9
TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 12 11
700-500 MB RH 59 55 54 54 56 54 56 55 56 56 57 57 60
GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -46 -38 -44 -55 -59 -49 -51 -54 -40 -26 0 15 21
200 MB DIV 12 7 -10 0 -1 7 31 18 14 -14 9 3 14
LAND (KM) 402 294 188 72 -11 33 -39 22 55 32 32 19 11
LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.1
LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.1 64.0 65.1 66.1 68.3 70.5 72.6 74.3 75.6 76.6 77.4 77.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 8 5 4 3 2
HEAT CONTENT 90 87 85 84 78 77 9999 86 88 87 92 86 89
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 22. 28. 31.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 20. 26. 31. 32.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/25/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/25/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY