* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP932007 09/25/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 34 40 43 46 49 52 55 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 34 40 43 46 49 52 55 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 27 29 31 33 35 SHEAR (KTS) 10 14 14 15 20 18 17 21 23 23 21 21 21 SHEAR DIR 266 280 271 258 253 261 247 249 246 244 242 246 255 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 141 142 142 142 142 143 144 144 145 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 63 62 62 63 63 62 61 61 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -15 -19 -18 -9 7 11 24 21 21 16 6 11 200 MB DIV 18 5 21 26 20 40 32 16 -4 12 15 19 1 LAND (KM) 995 1028 1059 1060 1066 1101 1139 1184 1253 1339 1446 1561 1675 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 162.2 163.0 163.8 164.5 165.1 166.4 167.7 168.8 169.9 171.1 172.5 173.9 175.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 31. 34. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 20. 23. 26. 29. 32. 35. 39. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP932007 INVEST 09/25/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932007 INVEST 09/25/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED