* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/25/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 52 57 61 60 59 58 54 54 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 52 57 61 60 59 58 54 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 39 41 45 48 51 52 52 49 46 42 SHEAR (KTS) 4 8 12 17 13 14 11 19 21 29 34 35 31 SHEAR DIR 296 276 275 280 295 260 231 242 226 231 230 231 229 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 137 140 139 138 136 134 133 134 138 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 139 142 141 137 132 127 124 124 125 126 126 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.9 -54.2 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 57 56 52 54 57 58 58 57 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 14 13 13 15 13 14 15 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 37 28 23 11 -24 -31 -46 -29 -14 -4 8 200 MB DIV 33 25 -6 -26 -12 27 30 40 28 17 27 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 1515 1414 1317 1228 1153 1080 1148 1248 1291 1320 1334 1314 1327 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 13.1 14.8 16.4 17.9 19.3 20.6 21.9 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.6 41.9 43.3 44.7 47.1 49.0 50.5 51.5 52.4 53.2 53.7 54.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 13 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 16 22 24 33 33 48 50 42 43 47 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 10. 15. 21. 26. 27. 27. 26. 22. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 22. 26. 25. 24. 23. 19. 19. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/25/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/25/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY