* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 09/25/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 47 56 63 69 71 71 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 27 27 27 27 36 37 37 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 26 27 36 41 43 43 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 9 7 8 5 4 3 10 11 18 18 25 SHEAR DIR 265 286 331 358 12 90 103 133 244 270 297 297 302 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.3 28.7 28.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 153 153 154 160 164 167 158 147 143 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 137 137 137 141 149 157 161 151 139 133 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 12 10 8 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 7 5 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 59 60 60 59 64 62 66 64 67 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 6 7 6 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 19 7 -3 -12 -2 -10 10 -10 0 -26 -24 -39 200 MB DIV 25 8 -11 -27 -18 15 8 2 15 1 24 7 31 LAND (KM) 248 201 156 98 38 -91 -272 -118 -15 134 305 247 261 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.6 21.4 21.1 20.7 20.0 19.2 18.7 18.6 18.8 19.6 20.7 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.3 95.7 96.2 96.6 97.6 99.1 101.1 103.5 106.1 108.5 110.4 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 7 9 11 12 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 70 74 79 76 72 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 18. 24. 30. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 16. 25. 35. 42. 48. 50. 50. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 27. 37. 43. 49. 51. 51. 47. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 09/25/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 09/25/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY