* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972007 09/25/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 35 41 47 52 58 63 65
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 26 26 32 36 39 34 35 38
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 27 25 26 29 30 33 30 29 36
SHEAR (KTS) 24 30 31 27 26 29 20 13 6 13 12 19 16
SHEAR DIR 291 287 299 293 292 275 280 266 285 275 277 249 233
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 152 151 155 160 161 164 165 165 165
ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 146 147 146 143 146 149 147 148 147 146 144
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7
TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11
700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 62 61 58 59 56 57 54 55 55 57
GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -32 -36 -43 -46 -37 -42 -40 -49 -29 -24 -3 6 20
200 MB DIV 5 -2 3 11 7 19 24 25 7 9 27 18 18
LAND (KM) 291 181 74 0 21 -36 -33 20 12 3 -7 1 10
LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.8
LONG(DEG W) 63.2 64.2 65.2 66.3 67.4 69.7 72.0 74.0 75.5 76.8 77.9 78.8 79.7
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 89 86 84 83 75 9999 9999 92 85 89 88 98 101
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 16. 22. 27. 33. 38. 40.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/25/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/25/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY