* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/26/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 44 46 51 55 59 56 56 56 58 58 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 44 46 51 55 59 56 56 56 58 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 44 47 48 49 47 46 46 46 SHEAR (KTS) 7 12 12 12 15 15 15 22 27 21 22 20 30 SHEAR DIR 273 293 294 293 265 282 237 247 222 228 216 229 210 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 140 139 137 135 133 133 134 135 139 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 142 142 140 134 130 125 123 123 123 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 60 57 56 55 53 56 56 51 54 52 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 14 14 14 13 15 12 14 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 49 37 26 21 21 0 -29 -37 -56 -28 -33 -13 4 200 MB DIV 26 -6 -27 -10 16 19 22 33 14 27 10 9 0 LAND (KM) 1409 1317 1235 1168 1113 1086 1178 1276 1310 1328 1393 1376 1364 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.6 15.2 16.6 17.8 19.0 20.3 21.6 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.7 43.0 44.4 45.7 47.8 49.2 50.3 51.2 52.0 52.5 53.0 53.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 21 24 27 32 36 47 50 41 38 42 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. 0. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 19. 24. 22. 24. 23. 25. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 9. 11. 16. 20. 24. 21. 21. 21. 23. 23. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/26/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/26/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY