* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN AL132007 09/26/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 47 55 63 68 72 74 72 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 30 28 27 27 32 34 32 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 29 28 27 27 32 36 39 41 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 14 11 9 8 8 8 11 8 9 20 31 SHEAR DIR 278 322 355 22 59 95 141 168 188 249 242 289 259 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 155 155 155 156 160 162 162 157 150 142 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 138 138 139 142 148 151 152 145 137 129 112 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 11 14 10 14 10 14 8 10 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 57 55 58 57 61 58 60 62 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 9 -3 -12 -13 -4 -8 1 -20 -40 -43 -59 -28 200 MB DIV 4 -9 -22 -9 -9 4 12 8 -9 -9 -13 0 43 LAND (KM) 197 145 92 39 0 -145 -315 -221 -96 104 195 23 38 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.3 20.8 20.4 20.2 20.4 21.0 21.8 22.8 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.8 96.3 96.9 97.4 98.7 100.4 102.4 104.4 106.5 108.4 110.2 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 80 89 91 94 89 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 27. 34. 39. 43. 45. 43. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 30. 38. 43. 47. 49. 47. 42. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/26/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/26/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY