* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP932007 09/26/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 37 37 37 39 42 44 44 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 37 37 37 39 42 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 15 15 SHEAR (KTS) 12 17 28 27 26 29 31 29 29 28 25 28 33 SHEAR DIR 271 279 289 294 305 299 286 268 261 259 256 252 252 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 142 141 142 142 143 143 143 144 144 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 61 62 64 59 62 58 60 59 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -30 -48 -49 -38 -13 1 6 16 9 -2 -8 -19 200 MB DIV 43 11 -22 -9 7 16 18 0 15 23 44 31 46 LAND (KM) 1053 1079 1111 1112 1109 1127 1155 1203 1272 1363 1465 1571 1678 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 162.3 163.1 163.8 164.5 165.2 166.4 167.5 168.6 169.9 171.3 172.7 174.0 175.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. 21. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 17. 17. 17. 19. 22. 24. 24. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP932007 INVEST 09/26/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932007 INVEST 09/26/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY