* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* KAREN AL122007 09/26/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 59 63 64 65 64 62 62 62 61
V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 59 63 64 65 64 62 62 62 61
V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 56 58 61 62 61 60 58 58 59 60
SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 13 17 20 11 22 15 23 13 20 18 22
SHEAR DIR 288 287 274 260 266 253 254 230 233 234 223 191 203
SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 139 137 136 134 133 132 134 139 141 142
ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 140 139 136 132 127 123 121 123 126 126 125
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -55.3 -54.8 -55.4 -54.7 -55.0 -54.3 -54.4
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 58 53 54 55 54 56 57 55 55 54 56 56 53
GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 14 13 13 14 13 14 15 15
850 MB ENV VOR 48 34 25 24 16 -18 -38 -49 -44 -42 -21 -12 -13
200 MB DIV 8 -7 -7 5 14 21 25 27 12 3 -3 35 -4
LAND (KM) 1324 1247 1186 1152 1117 1140 1218 1294 1298 1327 1324 1271 1272
LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.0 14.4 15.9 17.1 18.0 19.2 20.6 21.8 22.9
LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.8 44.1 45.3 46.4 48.3 49.9 50.9 51.5 52.2 53.3 54.1 54.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 6 8 8 7 5
HEAT CONTENT 16 20 24 24 31 29 45 53 50 42 44 51 55
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 19. 19. 19. 18.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 19. 20. 19. 17. 17. 17. 16.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/26/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/26/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED