* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN AL132007 09/26/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 41 48 54 60 64 68 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 41 48 54 60 42 32 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 52 39 30 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 11 4 3 4 5 4 8 6 2 5 8 SHEAR DIR 301 335 3 11 42 121 237 316 278 290 321 338 6 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 148 149 149 148 150 152 154 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 131 131 129 130 131 130 133 136 139 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 11 13 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 62 64 62 63 64 65 64 65 63 65 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 7 6 5 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -19 -18 -18 -20 -15 -12 -17 -18 -42 -24 -48 -12 200 MB DIV -9 -19 -3 1 6 13 27 20 9 -1 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 204 196 187 191 194 174 118 70 14 -60 -167 -253 -243 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.0 20.8 20.7 20.6 20.4 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.3 18.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.0 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.9 95.4 95.8 96.3 97.0 98.0 98.7 98.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 60 56 53 50 47 44 46 49 52 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 23. 29. 36. 40. 44. 46. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 29. 35. 39. 43. 44. 44. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/26/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/26/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED